There is always value to be found when reading this blog

This is the 336th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I’ve been out of circulation for the past week or so, mainly as I’ve not seen anything worthy of having a decent wager on. Sure, there are lots of speculative opportunities and, even looking at my Flat Racing Notebook  (go to http://waywardlad.blogspot.com) which I put together earlier this season, I could have named a few winners – but they would have been speculative rather than measured wagers.

Take HUMIDOR for instance who won at 14/1 last week (Wednesday 7th). He was entered the day before and would have been the subject of a 2pt win wager, but he was withdrawn at about 11:40am just before I was going to publish my selections on Betting League. The race he ran in on Wednesday I thought he’d be outclassed in, unless he was in tip-top form, hence no selection. Take a look at what I wrote about him on my Horse Alert page: “won class 3, 5f h’cap in time just 0.28 o/s track record. That performance looks exceptional. He seems to go on any ground and stays 6-furlongs. A late foal, he’s improving hand-over-fist.”

On 9th Sept (Friday) at Doncaster, another from my Flat Racing Notebook BEATEN UP won for the 2nd time this season at 9/4. Look what I wrote about him: “won debut at 3yo won commanding style despite running green. Half-bro Harris Tweed (OR112) won same race in 2010 in similar fashion and was rated OR85. So, OR86 rating for this win looks reasonable.” After winning the race, the Racing Post analyst thought the same, considering him thrown-in (in hindsight) – but I put readers of my blog onto the horse back in April. MASHAAREF in 2nd was another entry in my Notebook.

FINE THREADS (see my Notebook entry) is due to run this weekend, take note.

What I’m saying is that I may not be posting a blog everyday nowadays, but there is still plenty of value in what’s written on the blog. The Weekender is out tomorrow and I’m now concentrating on updating my Horse Alert List for the jumps season. I enjoy the flat, but where I may my bread & butter is on the jumps scene.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.

Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Quarterly Review

This is the 335th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

I’ve been looking thru’ my betting returns of recent weeks and outside those selections that I’ve been posting on Betting League, I’ve been squandering decent profits on silly wagers. I’m sure most horse-players have had this sort of problem – low quality racing not firing-up the belly and a growing “itch” to have a wager that needs scratching.

What usually happens in my case is that mid-afternoon I’ll log-on to Betfair and peruse the next race or two before settling on some dodge-pot that the “devil” on my shoulder tells me I can make a quick profit from.

Sure enough, 10 minutes later I’m down £50 and thinking “what the hell am I doing?”

So, for the next few months up till Christmas Day, I’m going to try and avoid all “silly” strategies such as back-2-lay, place-laying, and laying-the-fav. Not, I’m not going to try and avoid; I’m going to make sure I don’t go anywhere near these sort of wagers by avoiding using my Betfair account and relying solely on traditional bookies.

I’ve noted a few “jumpers” that you may want to enter in your notebooks, they are:-
KING PENDA
PULLYOURFINGEROUT
LOST GLORY
WEST WITH THE WIND
VIVA COLONIA

The last-named looks very exciting.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Thanks from Wayward Lad

Some pointers from Ascot on Saturday

This is the 334th edition of the Wayward Lad blog.

My Saturday visit to Ascot did not bring any joy on the punting front, and neither of my selections posted on Betting League won either. Not a good day at the office!

On Betting League I posted-up the following selections, both at Haydock – RAINFALL in the opening race at 2:00pm, and FOUR NATIONS in the 5:10pm. I really thought that RAINFALL should ahead of the opposition in her race on pure ability alone, altho’ there was a questionmark over her ability to stay the mile trip. I thought that her ability would carry her thru’ and the odds of 4/1 (at the time) represented value as if she did stay the trip, then she’d likely win. As it happened, her odds drifted to an SP of 5/1 and tho’ she came to challenge at the 2-furlong pole she did not have the stamina to carry that challenge thru’ and finished 4th beaten just over 4-lengths. The race winner – King Torus – won what looked like a weak Group 2 at Goodwood as a 2yo before being sent for the Grand Criterium at Longchamps (won by Wooton Bassett) in which he was outclassed. Looking at the result, this race did not take much winning either and so if he steps up to Group company NTO, he needs to find a fair bit of improvement to be competitive. On reflection, I am happy that my wager on RAINFALL was the right one for this race.

As for FOUR NATIONS, he did everything right only to be beaten by a horse that had not looked capable of winning off either its official rating (OR87) or at the trip (mile & 6-furlongs). Where next, I’m not sure as he’ll no doubt go up another couple of pounds. So long as he tries this sort of trip again NTO, and on similar going, then I will probably support him. In my opinion, he could develop into a useful 4yo, especially in races like the Old Borough Cup over the same trip and on the same card.

I was glad (in a way) that I did not have a wager on another previous selection, Zuider Zee in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. He came 3rd at 13/2, altho’ 8/1 was available for most of the morning. I’m sure this horse is destined for the sales and a future over hurdles now as he is thoroughly one-paced.

I was at Ascot, and I will not bore you with the tales of my losses there. However, I did see some snippets of good form. In the 2yo class 2 Stakes race over a mile win by Falls Of Lora, ITTASAL was given no sort of chance as her rider managed to get her boxed-in at the 2-furlong pole as the leader weakened quickly. She is a lot better than this, make note.
In the class 3 fillies h’cap, also over a mile, ELECTRA STAR produced a devastating turn-of-foot to win this and she may not go up much for this and looks very well handicapped and one to follow.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Betting on horseracing should be a pleasurable experience – never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Thanks from Wayward Lad